SPC AC 230711

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and/or damaging
   wind gusts are possible across portions of the middle/upper
   Mississippi Valley Monday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An upper trough will likely extend from eastern MT southward into
   western NM early Monday morning. Eastward progression of this trough
   will be impeded by strong subtropical ridging over the eastern
   CONUS, but some gradual eastward motion is anticipated. As this
   occurs, an upper low is forecast to develop over the southern
   Plains. The development of this low combined with the eastern CONUS
   ridging will contribute to an eventual split of the upper pattern
   into northern and southern streams by early Tuesday.

   At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from MN
   southwestward into southeast NM early Monday.
   Southward/southeastward progression of this front is anticipated
   throughout the day. Given the widespread thunderstorm activity
   expected on Sunday, less low-level moisture will be in place ahead
   of the front than previous days. Additionally, cloudy conditions
   will stunt diurnal heating and mixing. The end result is a less
   unstable pre-frontal air mass. Thunderstorms are still expected
   along the front over much of the southern and central Plains, but
   limited instability and weak shear should temper overall severe
   potential.

   Farther northeast across the middle and upper MS Valley, stronger
   diurnal heating is expected, with highs in the low 80s as far north
   as southern WI. More low-level moisture is also anticipated, with
   dewpoints around 70 deg F by the late afternoon. These conditions
   support moderate to strong instability. The better vertical shear
   will be displaced northwest of the better instability, but robust
   updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are
   still possible.

   ..Mosier.. 05/23/2020

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