SPC AC 310728
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across the Upper Midwest
and north-central Plains.
...Upper Midwest including eastern South Dakota to Wisconsin...
A flattening/strengthening belt of northern-tier westerlies will
influence the region on Tuesday as a low-amplitude shortwave trough
crosses the Canadian Prairies. An increasingly moist air mass is
expected near a front as it elongates in a WSW/ENE fashion, roughly
from the South Dakota/Nebraska border into southern portions of
Minnesota/Wisconsin by late afternoon. An eastward-advecting
elevated mixed layer and related capping will tend to hinder deep
convective development south of the front.
Upwards of 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE is expected by peak heating near a weak
surface low across southeast South Dakota/northeast Nebraska and in
vicinity of the eastward-extending front. Vertical shear will be
maximized along/immediately north of the front, with initial
supercells expected. Current thinking is that scattered storms are
most likely to initially develop across eastern South Dakota by late
Tuesday afternoon/early evening. Storms should further
increase/organize as they develop east-southeastward during the
evening within the unstable air mass across southern Minnesota/far
northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging winds
are expected.
...North-central High Plains...
Isolated high-based storms may develop Tuesday late afternoon/early
evening near the lee trough across west-central Nebraska and/or
within the post-frontal low-level upslope flow regime across eastern
Wyoming and the Black Hills vicinity. Isolated severe thunderstorms
capable of large hail and strong wind gusts are expected.
..Guyer.. 05/31/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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