SPC AC 010742

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday from the Central
   Plains to the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Northeast
   States.

   ...North-central High Plains/Central Plains...
   A belt of strengthening westerlies aloft will influence the region
   into Wednesday afternoon/night. Severe thunderstorms will initially
   be possible across the north-central High Plains Wednesday
   afternoon/early evening, potentially including the Black Hills
   vicinity southward into western Nebraska/northeast
   Colorado/northwest Kansas. Some supercells are expected and at least
   isolated large hail/strong wind gusts appear probable. Into
   Wednesday evening/night, current thinking is that an MCS could
   persist and move east-southeastward Wednesday night, generally near
   the Kansas/Nebraska border with a severe threat possibly continuing
   into the overnight.

   ...Midwest including Missouri to Ohio...
   The boundary layer should become moderately to strongly unstable
   Wednesday afternoon along and south of a southward-advancing front,
   with the strongest destabilization (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) currently
   expected across northern/central Missouri into much of
   Illinois/Indiana. Sufficient near-frontal convergence and forcing
   for ascent should allow for scattered deep convective development
   through the afternoon. While deep-layer/low-level winds will be not
   be overly strong, the degree of instability and roughly 20-35 kt
   effective shear will support sustained multicellular clusters
   capable of wind damage and some severe hail.

   ...Upper Ohio Valley/Northeast States...
   A low-amplitude shortwave trough and a related belt of strong
   west-northwesterly winds aloft will overlie a
   south/southeastward-spreading front. While there is some uncertainty
   regarding the exact degree of destabilization through the afternoon,
   moderate buoyancy is plausible near/south of the front, with severe
   storms expected particularly during the afternoon/early evening
   hours of Wednesday. The strong mid/high-level westerlies and 40+ kt
   effective shear would support some initial supercells along with
   sustained southeastward-moving clusters. Damaging winds and severe
   hail are possible.

   ..Guyer.. 06/01/2020

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