SPC AC 020729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Central Plains
   and Lower/Middle Missouri River Valley on Thursday, with other
   strong/severe thunderstorms possible from the Ozarks to the
   Mid-Atlantic region and Carolinas.

   ...Central Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley...
   Although guidance variability exists regarding timing/location of
   relevant shortwave features into the Day 3 time frame, the region
   will be influenced by a moderately strong belt of low-amplitude
   westerlies. A relatively moist/potentially unstable air mass is
   expected near a front along the South Dakota/Nebraska border
   vicinity and along/east of a southward-extending surface trough
   across west-central portions of Nebraska and Kansas.

   Surface-based convective development appears most likely to occur by
   mid/late afternoon across east-central/northeast Nebraska into
   southwest South Dakota/southwest Minnesota. Steep lapse rates,
   moderate to strong buoyancy (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) in the presence
   of 40 kt effective shear will be favorable for supercells capable of
   large hail and possibly some tornado risk. It seems probable that
   one or more southeastward-moving forward-propagating clusters of
   storms could evolve during the evening, with a damaging wind threat
   increasing accordingly, potentially across areas such as eastern
   Nebraska into western Iowa/northeast Kansas/northern Missouri.

   ...Southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas...
   Near/south of a front across these regions, moderate instability may
   develop particularly across parts of Virginia/northern North
   Carolina Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will not be strong,
   but 20-25 kt mid-level westerlies should overlie much of the frontal
   corridor. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible, with wind
   damage as the primary hazard. A categorical Slight Risk could
   ultimately be warranted for parts of the region.

   ..Guyer.. 06/02/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z