SPC AC 050728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
   DAKOTAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are expected late Sunday afternoon through evening
   over parts of the northern Plains. A few strong storms may affect
   the central Gulf Coast states related to tropical cyclone Cristobal.

   ...Northern Plains...
   A northward-ejecting upper wave will be near the US/CN border early
   Sunday, and will quickly depart north. Only brief ridging will occur
   before height falls commence by late afternoon as a strong upper jet
   moves through the Great Basin.

   Low pressure will deepen over the northern High Plains Sunday
   afternoon, with center over western SD at 00Z. Strong heating and
   mixing will occur along the length of the High Plains, with a
   dryline extending south from the low. Strong instability with
   develop, with mid 60s F dewpoints and steep lapse rate profiles.
   Capping will likely erode by around 21Z with initiation likely in
   the hot/deeply mixed air near the low. 

   Although some storms may be high based initially, wind profiles will
   strongly favor supercells, with very large hail, damaging wind, and
   a few tornadoes as effective SRH averages 200-300 m2/s2. Capping
   will increase during the evening, but any supercells approaching the
   moist axis may persist for some time, helped by a strong southerly
   low-level jet. A few elevated storms may develop during the day in
   the warm advection regime into northern MN as well.

   ...Central Gulf Coast states...
   Tropical moisture will surge northward on Sunday in association with
   Cristobal which is forecast to become a tropical storm. Mid 70s F
   dewpoints will contribute to minimal SBCAPE across southern LA/MS/AL
   with strengthening low-level shear conditionally favoring rotation,
   and a couple brief tornadoes.

   ..Jewell.. 06/05/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z