SPC AC 070730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
   MID MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI VALLEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF TEXAS....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms may be scattered about Tuesday over
   Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Kentucky, and overnight into eastern and
   southern Texas. A few tornadoes are possible across parts of the
   Midwest, but predictability is currently low.

   ...Mid MS/MO and OH Valleys...
   The remnants of Cristobal are forecast to move north from MO into WI
   during the day, with the low deepening in advance of the main upper
   trough over the Plains. This low will bring a very moist air mass
   northward across the region, with 70s F dewpoints into IL and IN by
   afternoon. The main corridor of heavy rain is expected to be
   coincident with the low from MO into IA, but scattered storms are
   anticipated east of the low track across IL, IN, and western KY.

   Forecast soundings reveal moist, weakly unstable, and highly sheared
   profiles developing over western KY, IL and IN during the middle of
   the day, along with warm midlevel temperatures. This may favor
   low-topped storms and perhaps a few brief tornadoes.

   Wind fields will change rapidly and veer as the low moves north of
   the area, then re-adjust overnight as the upper trough approaches
   from the west. Additional storms are possible along the cold front
   from IL southward across the MS Valley and curling west into
   southern TX, but these may be isolated with wind and hail threat.

   Model disagreement is relatively high with the timing and location
   of the best areas of potential on Tuesday, thus will defer possible
   Slight Risk areas to later updates.

   ..Jewell.. 06/07/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z