SPC AC 180727

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms will be possible over portions of the
   central and southern Plains into the Midwest region on Saturday
   afternoon and evening.

   ...Central and southern Plains into the Midwest regions...

   Shortwave trough will move from the central and southern Plains into
   the Midwest Saturday. At the surface a quasi-stationary front should
   extend from the upper Great Lakes southwestward into KS or OK. Areas
   of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along portions
   of this boundary and this contributes to uncertainty regarding where
   the best destabilization potential will be during the day.
   Nevertheless, the atmosphere is expected to become moderately
   unstable in moist warm sector south of this boundary with generally
   1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and possibly 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE where
   steeper mid-level lapse rates will reside across the southern
   Plains. Storms may redevelop and intensify along the front and
   residual outflow boundaries as the surface layer destabilizes during
   the afternoon. Vertical wind profiles will remain modest with 0-6 km
   shear from 25-35 kt supportive of multicells capable of isolated
   damaging wind and hail. During the evening and overnight, additional
   strong to severe storms might develop north of the front supported
   by a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Given the uncertainty
   regarding evolution and extent of early convection, will introduce
   MRGL this outlook with possible SLGT risk reserved for later
   updates.
    
   Other storms might develop over the mountains of southwest TX and
   possibly a storm or two along the dryline. However, much of this
   region will remain within zone of general subsidence in wake of the
   shortwave trough, suggesting coverage will probably be sparse, and
   any activity that does develop should diminish after sunset.

   ..Dial.. 06/18/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z