SPC AC 190722

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms are possible Sunday, mainly across a portion
   of the central and southern Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley
   region.

   ...Central and southern Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley
   region...

   Early Sunday a cold front should extend from the Great Lakes
   southwestward into the central Plains where it will likely stall. A
   dryline will persist farther south across the southern and central
   High Plains. Rich low-level moisture with mid to upper 60s F
   dewpoints will reside in warm sector beneath steepening mid-level
   lapse rates. The atmosphere is expected to become moderately to
   strongly unstable over a portion of the central and southern Plains
   as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. A shortwave trough
   embedded within a northwesterly flow regime along with boundary
   layer destabilization should promote the development of storms in
   vicinity of the stalled front across NE by mid to late afternoon.
   This activity will subsequently spread southeast through the warm
   sector, possibly evolving into a forward propagating MCS supported
   by a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet. Damaging wind and hail
   will be the main threats into the evening and overnight. Other more
   isolated storms may develop farther southwest along the dryline and
   the mountains of southwest TX, posing a risk for a few instances of
   locally strong wind gusts and hail, but this activity should
   diminish after sunset.

   ..Dial.. 06/19/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z