SPC AC 230715

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong/locally severe storms will be possible across parts
   of the northern Plains Thursday afternoon and into the evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   As an upper low moves slowly across western Quebec, associated
   cyclonic flow over the eastern half of the country will be gradually
   shunted eastward with time, as a trough crosses the Intermountain
   West and begins affecting the northern and central Plains --
   especially through the second half of the period.

   At the surface, a weak cold front accompanying the upper trough is
   forecast to move across the northern Plains, supporting development
   of afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity across north-central
   portions of the country.

   ...Northern Plains vicinity...
   Low-level moist advection is forecast into the northern Plains
   Thursday, as low-level flow turns southerly ahead of the advancing
   cold front.  This combined with daytime heating will result in
   moderate destabilization, fueling thunderstorm development -- likely
   by mid afternoon.  

   While the deep-layer wind field will not be particularly strong,
   sufficient shear for some storm organization is expected, supporting
   a few stronger storms capable of producing locally damaging wind
   gusts and hail.  Peak storm intensity is expected through late
   afternoon/early evening; though storms may linger overnight as a
   southerly low-level jet develops, severe risk should gradually wane
   after dark.

   ..Goss.. 06/23/2020

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