SPC AC 030708
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the
northern Plains into the central High Plains on Sunday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging extending into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest is
forecast to dampen on Sunday as a series of low-amplitude shortwave
troughs progress northeastward into the northern Plains. The
progression of these shortwave troughs is also expected to encourage
southeastward progress of a cold front across the northern Plains.
Air mass ahead of this front will likely be characterized by ample
low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in
moderate to strong buoyancy. Though the strongest vertical shear
will likely be displaced to the northwest of the front, modest
vertical shear is still anticipated along the front. These
conditions support the potential for a few stronger, more organized
storms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts.
Farther southeast, a broad upper low is expected to remain largely
in place over the central Gulf Coast, contributing to numerous
showers and thunderstorms. Weak vertical shear will limit the
overall severe potential.
A shortwave trough is expected to move through northern New England
Sunday afternoon. Vertical shear over the region is forecast to be
sufficient for storm organization but guidance differs on the extent
of pre-frontal mixing, and therefore the instability in place as the
front moves through. These differences limit predictability
regarding overall storm coverage, precluding the including of any
severe probabilities with this outlook. Probabilities may be needed
in later outlooks if confidence in greater storm coverage increases.
..Mosier.. 07/03/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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