SPC AC 050716

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MT
   AND FAR WESTERN ND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern
   High Plains and northern Plains from Tuesday afternoon through early
   Wednesday morning.

   ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains...
   A belt of strong southwesterly/westerly flow aloft is forecast to
   extend from central CA through the northern Plains/Canadian Prairie
   Province into the Upper Midwest/Ontario. A shortwave trough is
   expected to move within this enhanced flow aloft on Tuesday,
   reaching the northern High Plains by Tuesday afternoon and the
   northern Plains/Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday
   morning. Surface lee troughing is expected to deepen ahead of this
   system, with the resulting increase in the pressure gradient
   contributing to strong low-level moisture advection into
   central/eastern MT. This low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
   lapse rates will result in moderate to strong instability, from
   central MT into the western Dakotas, ahead of the approaching
   shortwave trough and its attendant surface low. Additionally,
   southeasterly surface winds beneath the aforementioned belt of
   enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will contribute to strong vertical
   shear.

   Current expectation is for thunderstorms to develop along and ahead
   of the surface low and cold front associated with the approaching
   shortwave trough. Initial development currently looks most likely
   across central MT Tuesday afternoon. The conditions previously
   mentioned with result in an environment conducive to severe
   thunderstorms, including the potential for an organized convective
   line. A few discrete supercells are also likely. Greatest
   probability for severe thunderstorm currently appears to be over
   eastern MT and far western ND as the front moves through Tuesday
   evening. A strong low-level jet will support severe thunderstorm
   potential eastward across ND and northern SD Tuesday night into
   Wednesday morning. All severe hazards are possible, with large hail
   currently expected to be primary threat.

   ...Elsewhere...
   Numerous thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast states, but
   weak vertical shear will keep any severe threat very isolated.
   Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are also possible over
   the central and southern High Plains. Severe probabilities in these
   areas are currently less than 5%.

   ..Mosier.. 07/05/2020

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