SPC AC 060729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
   SOUTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF MINNESOTA....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern/central Plains
   into the Upper Midwest Wednesday. Greatest severe threat is
   currently forecast across eastern South Dakota and most of
   Minnesota.

   ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
   A shortwave trough is forecast to begin to period over southern
   Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This shortwave is expected to mature into a
   closed cyclone over southern Saskatchewan by Wednesday afternoon.
   Another shortwave trough is expected to move through the base of
   this cyclone, from the northern High Plains eastward/northeastward
   into southern Manitoba. This evolution will encourage the
   eastward/southeastward progression of a cold front from the eastern
   Dakotas into NE and the Upper Midwest. Dewpoints in the upper
   60s/low 70s and steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to be in
   place ahead of the front, supporting strong instability. A largely
   unidirectional wind profile will temper vertical shear. Even so, the
   strength of the instability should still result in scattered severe
   thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening. Large hail and damaging
   wind gusts are the primary severe threats.

   ...Elsewhere...
   Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated from GA through the
   Carolinas in the vicinity of a surface low and associated upper
   cyclone that is expected to move slowly over the region. Some
   enhancement of the low-level flow is possible along the eastern
   periphery of the system, but this is currently expected to be
   offshore. Resulting weak vertical shear over land will keep any
   severe threat low.

   Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also possible from the
   northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast as a result of pre-frontal
   confluence amid ample low-level moisture and modest buoyancy. Weak
   vertical shear should preclude organized severe thunderstorms across
   the majority of the region. The only exception is across New England
   where slightly stronger flow aloft attendant to a low-amplitude
   shortwave trough will increase vertical shear. Uncertain storm
   coverage that far north precludes any probabilities with this
   outlook.

   ..Mosier.. 07/06/2020

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