SPC AC 110730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the central
   Plains into the eastern Dakotas, and western Minnesota and Iowa on
   Monday.

   ...Central/Northern Plains to western MN/IA...

   An strong upper trough will shift eastward from the northern Rockies
   to the northern Plains on Monday. This will result in shifting the
   upper ridge eastward, and strong height falls leading to a band of
   strong westerly flow across the central/northern Plains to the Upper
   Midwest. Most guidance shows boundary layer moisture will increase
   on strong southerly low level flow, with surface dewpoints climbing
   into the mid 60s F. Strong heating will result in moderate to strong
   destabilization ahead of a surface low and convection should develop
   by peak heating along a surface trough/weak frontal boundary from
   the eastern Dakotas southwestward into central NE. 

   Backed low level winds in the vicinity of the surface low across
   eastern SD/northeast NE eastward into western MN/northwest IA will
   enhance effective shear and SRH. Organized cells capable of all
   severe hazards appear possible, though uncertainty remains in how
   long discrete convection could persist as a low level jet
   strengthens during the evening and some upscale development is
   likely as storms shift eastward toward the Upper Midwest. While some
   uncertainty remains due to periods of prior convection in the days
   prior to Monday, and the exact timing of the ejecting wave,
   confidence has increased sufficiently to include a corridor of 15%
   severe probabilities.

   ..Leitman.. 07/11/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z