SPC AC 120723

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from the central
   Plains vicinity to the upper Mississippi Valley.

   ...Central Plains to Upper MS Valley vicinity...

   An upper trough will persist from the northern Rockies to the Upper
   Midwest on Tuesday. One embedded shortwave impulse will be pivoting
   northeastward across the Upper Midwest during the morning/afternoon,
   while another shortwave impulse ejects eastward across the central
   Rockies into the central Plains during the evening/overnight hours.
   This will maintain a belt of strong west/southwesterly flow across
   the region in conjunction with a seasonally moist and unstable air
   mass. Some convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the
   region, most likely from parts of MN/WI, and possibly southwestward
   toward eastern NE/KS. As a result, some uncertainty exists regarding
   degree of severe potential across parts of the upper MS/mid-MO
   Valley vicinity during the afternoon/evening.

   Nevertheless, some severe potential should exist where the boundary
   layer remains intact or is able to recover in the wake of, or ahead
   of, morning convection in the vicinity of a surface boundary
   extending northeast to southwest across the Marginal risk area.
   Storms will likely develop along this boundary by late
   afternoon/evening as a shortwave impulses ejects eastward from the
   central Rockies into the central Plains. One or more storm clusters
   capable of strong gusts, hail and possibly a tornado should develop
   eastward across the central Plains vicinity during the
   evening/overnight hours. Given uncertainty in how prior convection
   will affect the boundary layer, will only introduce Marginal
   probabilities at this time, but upgrades may be needed in subsequent
   outlooks as mesoscale features become better resolved in the coming
   day or two.

   ..Leitman.. 07/12/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z