SPC AC 130738

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0238 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening
   across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley, and across parts of
   the central High Plains.

   ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity...

   An upper trough will be centered over the north-central U.S. early
   Wednesday morning. A shortwave impulse embedded within the
   larger-scale trough is forecast to eject east/northeast from the
   central Plains to the lower Great Lakes through the period. At the
   surface, a weak low will track from eastern IA to lower MI by
   Wednesday evening. A cold front will shift east/southeast as this
   occurs, extending from near northwest OH into southern MO and then
   along the OK/KS border by Thursday morning. A seasonally very moist
   boundary layer will reside ahead of the front, and strong to severe
   storms appear possible from eastern KS into the mid-MS Valley and
   southern Lake Michigan vicinity. There is some uncertainty in how
   widespread the severe threat may be, and how it will eventually
   evolve, due to ongoing convection during the morning as the remnants
   of whatever MCS develops in the Day 2 period across IA/WI will
   likely be overspreading parts of the mid-MS Valley early Wednesday.
   For this reason, will only introduce Marginal probabilities at this
   time, but an upgrade to Slight risk could be needed in subsequent
   outlooks as mesoscale features become better resolved, and as
   confidence in the timing of the cold front increases.

   ...Central High Plains...

   A weak surface low will reside near the OK/TX Panhandles on
   Wednesday, with weak post-frontal upslope flow expected on the
   backside of the low across western KS into eastern CO/NM. This will
   allow 60s F dewpoints to spread westward across the High Plains.
   Strong heating and steep lapse rates should result in weak to
   moderate destabilization by peak heating. A rather stout capping
   inversion is depicted in forecast soundings across far eastern CO
   into KS and the OK/TX Panhandles, and this should limit thunderstorm
   coverage and eastward extent. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms
   are expected through the evening hours across parts of the area, but
   may remain closer to the higher terrain. These storms will mainly be
   capable of strong gusts and hail and should weaken with eastward
   extent during the evening as they encounter increasing inhibition.

   ..Leitman.. 07/13/2020

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