SPC AC 230730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the
   northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

   ...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
   Isolated to scattered storms may be ongoing across parts of the
   northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday morning, with a
   southwesterly low-level jet providing the ascent needed to maintain
   storms. This low-level jet is forecast to gradually weaken and shift
   eastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. Upper ridging
   over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest is forecast to be
   suppressed by an upper trough moving eastward across western/central
   Canada and the north-central CONUS. A surface cold front should also
   develop east-southeastward across the northern Plains through the
   period in tandem with the upper trough.

   There is considerable uncertainty regarding convective evolution
   across these regions Saturday owing to the possible presence of
   morning convection and related outflow boundaries. These boundaries
   along with the southeastward-moving cold front will likely focus
   severe storm potential Saturday afternoon/evening. Notably, the 00Z
   NAM is much less unstable across ND ahead of the front compared to
   most other 00Z guidance, owing to more limited low-level moisture.
   The strongest mid-level flow associated with the upper trough will
   generally reside over ND and vicinity through Saturday evening, and
   this region may have the best severe potential. Still, there appears
   to be too much uncertainty in unresolved mesoscale details to
   include any more than a broad 5%/Marginal Risk area at this time. 

   ...Coastal Texas...
   Tropical Depression Eight is forecast by the National Hurricane
   Center to be near the TX Coast Saturday morning. Most 00Z guidance
   suggests that the low-level wind field associated with this cyclone
   may remain somewhat modest. Given the uncertainties regarding the
   placement and strength of this system on Saturday, it seems prudent
   to defer possible introduction of severe probabilities across any
   portion of coastal TX to a later outlook.

   ..Gleason.. 07/23/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z