SPC AC 020727

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
   INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some tornado threat will be possible from eastern North Carolina
   into southern New England Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association
   with Isaias. A few severe thunderstorms will also be possible across
   portions of the northern and central High Plains.

   ...Eastern NC into Southern New England...
   T.C. Isaias is currently forecast to be centered over eastern NC
   Tuesday morning and accelerate northeastward into New England by
   Wednesday morning. If the track is far enough inland, convection
   within a strong low-level shear environment will support some
   tornado threat for at least coastal regions of the Mid Atlantic into
   southern New England. Some organized convection will also be
   possible earlier in the period downstream of Isaias, as tropical
   moisture streams northward into a region of moderate mid/upper-level
   southwesterly flow associated with the persistent upper trough.
   While this scenario is more uncertain, some threat for locally
   damaging wind or a brief tornado may evolve within this regime as
   well.

   Some portion of this region may eventually require Slight
   Risk-equivalent probabilities, once confidence increases in details
   regarding the track, timing, and intensity of Isaias as it
   accelerates northeastward.  

   ...Northern/central High Plains...
   Low-level moisture will begin to return to a larger portion of the
   High Plains on Tuesday. As this occurs, steep midlevel lapse rates
   will support the development of moderate buoyancy, and scattered
   thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon. While initial
   development will likely be near higher terrain, northwesterly
   midlevel flow will support southeastward-moving convection, with
   sufficient effective shear for a few organized cells or clusters
   into a larger region of the High Plains. Hail and locally severe
   wind gusts will be the primary threats. Some upscale growth and/or
   development of elevated convection will be possible into late
   Tuesday night within a warm advection regime across the central High
   Plains, which may continue to pose a threat for localized severe
   wind or hail.

   ..Dean.. 08/02/2020

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