SPC AC 090719

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday in parts
   of the High Plains and lower to mid Mississippi Valley.

   ...High Plains...
   A low-amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward across
   the High Plains on Tuesday. At low-levels, a moist airmass will be
   in place from the central High Plains westward into the foothills of
   the Rockies. In response to surface heating, moderate instability
   appears likely to develop by afternoon from the Texas Panhandle
   northward into eastern Colorado, western Kansas and western
   Nebraska. As this takes place, convection will initiates in the
   higher terrain of the Rockies and move eastward into the lower
   elevations during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear on the order of 20
   to 30 kt could support a marginal severe threat with the stronger
   multicells. In spite of warm mid-level temperatures, lapse rates
   will be steep, suggesting a hail threat will be possible. Isolated
   wind damage may also occur. A capping inversion should become
   reestablished across the central Plains during the early evening,
   causing the severe threat to diminish.

   ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
   A shortwave trough is forecast to move east-southeastward across the
   Ozarks on Tuesday as a front advances southward across the mid
   Mississippi Valley. Some model depictions suggest that convection
   could develop along the front during the afternoon. In this case,
   surface dewpoints near 70 F, moderate instability and steep
   low-level lapse rates would be sufficient for a marginal wind damage
   threat. Uncertainty concerning the spatial distribution of the
   threat is substantial at this range, and will depend upon the timing
   of the front and magnitude of destabilization.

   ..Broyles.. 08/09/2020

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