SPC AC 100715

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
   afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
   Plains.

   ...Central and Northern Plains...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the northwestern
   U.S. as southwest mid-level flow becomes established across much of
   the northern Plains. A shortwave ridge is forecast to move eastward
   across the central Plains. Beneath the ridge, a moist and very
   unstable airmass will be in place from central South Dakota into
   central and eastern Nebraska. The upper-level ridge will impede
   convective development across much of the central and northern
   Plains through much of the day on Wednesday. However, isolated
   thunderstorms could develop near or after peak heating in areas
   where the cap weakens. Convective development would be most likely
   during the early evening as a 30 to 40 kt low-level jet strengthens.
   Although deep-layer shear across the central and northern Plains is
   forecast to be in the 20 to 30 kt range, low to mid-level lapse
   rates will be very steep. This would be enough for a marginal wind
   damage and hail threat with isolated thunderstorms that can overcome
   the cap. At this point, there appears to be a broad area where
   isolated convective initiation could take place. But most of the
   area will remain capped. Have introduced a marginal risk area that
   spans most of the instability corridor where convective initiation
   will be conditional.

   ..Broyles.. 08/10/2020

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