SPC AC 130713

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE GREAT LAKES...MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and hail will
   be possible Saturday afternoon and evening from parts of the Great
   Lakes south-southwestward into the Ozarks.

   ...Great Lakes/Mid Mississippi Valley/Ozarks...
   An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great
   Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will advance
   southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. By
   Saturday afternoon, the front position is forecast to be located
   from western Upper Michigan south-southwestward into western
   Illinois and central Missouri. Moderate instability is forecast to
   be in place ahead of the front by afternoon with thunderstorms
   forming along several sections of the front. The greatest coverage
   of storms is expected in the western Great Lakes where large-scale
   ascent will be stronger due to the approaching upper-level trough.
   In spite of the moderate instability, deep-layer shear along the
   front is expected to generally be less than 25 kt. For this reason,
   any severe threat that develops during the late afternoon and early
   evening should remain marginal. Strong wind gusts and hail will be
   the primary threats.

   ..Broyles.. 08/13/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z