SPC AC 140720
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong/marginally severe thunderstorms capable of producing
gusty winds and hail will be possible across much of Ohio and
portions of adjacent states, and over the northeast New Mexico
vicinity on Sunday. Upper disturbances crossing the southern
Rockies/southern High Plains area, and a short-wave trough crossing
the Great Lakes region, will both be associated with areas of active
convection and low-end severe risk.
...Synopsis...
A general western ridge/eastern trough configuration of the upper
flow field will continue over the U.S. on Sunday.
...Ohio and vicinity...
As a very weak surface trough/front shifts slowly eastward across
the Midwest/Ohio Valley, in tandem with mid-level short-wave
troughing, modest afternoon destabilization across the Ohio area
will likely support an uptick in afternoon storm development. Aided
by a belt of moderate mid-level westerlies, a few
organized/fast-moving multicell clusters may produce near-severe
wind gusts through early evening.
...Northeast New Mexico area...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is forecast over the higher
terrain of southern Colorado and into northeastern New Mexico, as
weak cyclonic disturbances aloft continue to move southward across
this region, within northerly anticyclonic flow. Daytime heating
will support sufficient destabilization to fuel convective
initiation, and with 20 to 25 kt northerlies aloft atop low-level
southerly flow, shear sufficient to support semi-organized updrafts
is expected. This -- combined with a deep mixed layer over the High
Plains -- suggests potential for locally strong/damaging wind gusts
through early evening.
..Goss.. 08/14/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
| 
)
