SPC AC 190706

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2020

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe weather risk appears too low across the U.S. to highlight any
   threat areas at this time.

   ...Synopsis...
   Little change to the overall large-scale pattern is expected over
   the U.S. Friday.  A somewhat-flattened upper ridge will remain over
   the west, while a weak trough/low remains in place over the Lower
   Ohio/Lower Mississippi Valleys.  

   Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the eastern U.S. within
   a zone largely bounded by the Mississippi River to the west, and the
   Ohio Valley to the north.  However, weak lapse rates and modest CAPE
   suggests that severe risk will likely remain local/isolated, despite
   moderate mid-level south-southwesterlies aloft.

   In the Western U.S., on the periphery of the upper ridge, it appears
   that afternoon/evening convection will be more limited in coverage
   than in recent days, with fewer disturbances embedded within the
   dominant anticylonic flow field.  While a stronger storm or two may
   produce gusty/damaging winds, overall risk appears likely to remain
   limited.

   Finally, a weak short-wave trough is progged to move across the
   southern Prairie Provinces, and adjacent northern Plains.  While
   thunderstorms will likely occur over the North Dakota vicinity in
   conjunction with this feature, as heating/ample destabilization
   occur through peak heating, modest deep-layer flow expected across
   the area should limit storm organization, and thus any attendant
   severe potential.

   ..Goss.. 08/19/2020

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