SPC AC 270730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS
   INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms will be possible from the Carolinas
   into the Middle Atlantic Saturday. Locally strong to damaging gusts
   and a few tornadoes are possible, mainly from the Carolinas into
   southern Virginia.

   ...Carolinas through Middle Atlantic region...

   Remnants of Laura are forecast to accelerate through the southern
   Appalachians and Carolinas to southern Middle Atlantic regions on
   Saturday as the system becomes absorbed within belt of westerlies.
   Laura may become loosely phased with a progressive northern-stream
   trough that will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast States.
   The accompanying cold front should extend from a surface low over
   the lower Great Lakes southwestward into the Ohio Valley early in
   the day. The front will continue into the Northeast States and
   Middle Atlantic during the mid to late afternoon. Rich tropical
   moisture will reside in pre-frontal warm sector, but weak lapse
   rates and potential for widespread clouds will likely result in
   marginal instability. The stronger low-level wind fields and largest
   hodographs accompanying Laura should spread through NC and possibly
   over southern VA based on latest guidance. The tornado threat should
   be greatest in these areas, conditional upon sufficient
   destabilization of the boundary layer. Farther north into the Mid
   Atlantic, low-level hodographs will be smaller, but the kinematic
   environment might be sufficient for a threat of locally strong wind
   gusts, especially if pockets of heating can occur in pre-frontal
   warm sector.  

   ...Central and southern Plains area...

   A cold front will advance southward into OK and the TX Panhandle
   Saturday where the atmosphere will likely become moderately to
   strongly unstable. Weak forcing aloft with low-amplitude ridging and
   likelihood of at least a modest capping inversion could limit robust
   development along the front during the day. However, at least
   isolated storms will be possible, and should they occur, the
   thermodynamic environment with steep lapse rates and strong
   instability will support a threat for a few severe multicells
   capable of downburst winds and hail. Greater confidence exists that
   storms will develop across KS overnight north of the front as the
   low-level jet strengthens. Some of this activity will be capable of
   producing large hail. Other storms developing farther west over the
   higher terrain of CO could spread into the High Plains during the
   evening.

   ..Dial.. 08/27/2020

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