SPC AC 280723

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms will be possible over a portion of the
   central and northern Plains Sunday afternoon and evening with
   damaging wind and large hail the main threats.

   ...Central and northern Plains region...

   A shortwave trough accompanied by a strong cold front will move
   through the northern and central Plains Sunday. By early Sunday the
   front should extend from western ND southwest into northern WY. A
   lee trough will extend southward through the central High Plains.
   The front will advance southeast during the period, and by 12Z on
   Monday should extend from MN southwestward through KS and into
   northeast NM. A relatively narrow corridor of modest low-level
   moisture will advect northward through the pre-frontal warm sector
   with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates
   resulting in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The atmosphere in this region
   will likely remain capped until arrival of deeper forcing
   accompanying the front when storms will likely develop from the
   central Dakotas into NE. Winds aloft will increase with the approach
   of the upper trough, and the parameter space appears sufficient for
   a threat of large hail and damaging wind as storms develop southeast
   during the evening.

   ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley area...

   An MCS will likely be ongoing in association with a low-amplitude
   shortwave trough across a portion of the lower MS into the TN Valley
   Sunday. This activity may continue east along and north of an
   stalled front through the TN Valley during the day. South of the
   outflow boundary/front the atmosphere should become moderately
   unstable, and potential will exist for additional storms to
   intensify along the southern periphery of the MCS or along the
   stalled front. Some of the storms may become capable of producing
   damaging wind and hail. Given the uncertainty regarding mesoscale
   details/evolution, will limit severe probabilities to marginal
   category this outlook.

   ..Dial.. 08/28/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z