SPC AC 300725

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
   will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains and
   from the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes.

   ...Southern Plains...
   An upper-level low is forecast to be in the Four Corners region on
   Tuesday as southwest mid-level flow remains over parts of the
   southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southward into
   west and north-central Texas. Although confidence is low for the
   exact position of the front, some model solutions suggest the front
   will be located from near Midland extending eastward into the Texas
   Hill Country and then northeastward to west of the Dallas/Fort Worth
   Metro by early afternoon. South of the boundary, surface dewpoints
   are forecast to be 60s F. In response, moderate instability should
   develop ahead of the front by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form
   near the front during the mid to late afternoon will likely move
   into the stronger instability. Moderate deep-layer shear along with
   steep low-level lapse rates may be sufficient for a marginal
   wind-damage threat. Hail could occur with the stronger updrafts as
   well.

   ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
   An upper-level tough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region
   on Tuesday. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level
   moisture is forecast to be from the mid Mississippi Valley extending
   northeastward into the lower Great Lakes by afternoon. 
   Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of this corridor as
   temperatures warm during the day. Moderate instability and steep
   low-level lapse rates will create conditions favorable for a
   marginal severe threat. Thunderstorms that develop in these areas
   where instability become maximized could obtain a wind-damage and
   hail threat, mainly during the mid to late afternoon.

   ..Broyles.. 08/30/2020

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