SPC AC 310711

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE VIRGINIAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
   will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains.
   Storms with a few strong wind gusts will be possible in the Ohio
   Valley and Virginias.

   ...Southern Plains...
   A positively tilted upper-level trough will move into the southern
   High Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front
   is forecast to be located from west Texas into the Texas Hill
   Country. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergence
   increases along parts of the front during the day, thunderstorm
   development will be likely. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to
   lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of
   the airmass south of the front. As storms move eastward and interact
   with the stronger instability south of the front, a few marginally
   severe storms will be possible. The moderate instability along with
   steep low-level lapse rates should support an isolated wind-damage
   threat. Hail could also occur, mainly over west-central Texas where
   mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep.

   ...Ohio Valley/Virginias...
   West-southwest mid-level flow is forecast across much of the Ohio
   Valley on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in
   place across much of the region with surface dewpoints in the upper
   60s and lower 70s F. Model forecasts suggest that an east-to-west
   corridor of moderate instability should set up by afternoon within
   the moist airmass from southern Kentucky into western Virginia. If
   this indeed does verify, then thunderstorms that move eastward along
   this corridor of instability would have a potential for marginally
   severe wind gusts.

   ..Broyles.. 08/31/2020

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