SPC AC 010730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2020

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
   over the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will
   rapidly move through the base of a larger scale trough over eastern
   Canada during the period.  Medium-range models indicate a lead
   disturbance over the OH Valley will move northeastward across the
   Mid-Atlantic states during the day.  In the low levels, a residual
   frontal zone will likely serve as the northern delimiter for a
   moist/unstable airmass across the upper OH Valley eastward to the
   lower Hudson Valley.  The primary cold front will sweep eastward
   across the Great Lakes during the day and into parts of the
   Northeast by early Friday morning.

   ...Mid-Atlantic states...
   A moisture-rich airmass will destabilize amidst cloud breaks and
   result in moderate instability by early-mid afternoon from the
   central Appalachians towards the Delmarva.  A belt of stronger low-
   to mid-level flow will overspread the warm sector (40-50 kt) ahead
   of the amplifying larger-scale wave over the Great Lakes.  The lead
   disturbance coupled with strong heating will lead to scattered
   thunderstorms developing during the day.  The stronger flow will aid
   in storm organization, including the possibility for a few intense
   cells and clusters.  Damaging gusts appear to be the primary severe
   hazard.  A threat for strong to isolated severe may linger into the
   evening hours before waning instability lessens the thunderstorm
   risk.

   ..Smith.. 09/01/2020

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