SPC AC 090728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across
   parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with marginally
   severe thunderstorms also possible across parts of the Southeast.

   ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
   A large-scale upper trough over western Canada and the northern
   Rockies should further amplify on Sunday across parts of the
   northern Plains while gradually acquiring a negative tilt by Sunday
   night. At the surface, a strong cold front is forecast to sweep
   east-southeastward from the northern/central Plains into the Upper
   Midwest through the period in tandem with the amplifying upper
   trough. Limited low-level moisture return is expected ahead of this
   advancing cold front, and a low-level inversion may inhibit
   convective development along the front through much of the day.
   Still, some potential for storms remains evident from parts of far
   eastern ND/SD into MN and perhaps parts of IA late Sunday afternoon
   and continuing into the evening. Strong deep-layer shear will be
   present across this region, which may act to organize any storms
   that can develop and subsequently grow upscale along the cold front.
   Isolated severe wind gusts will probably be the main threat through
   Sunday evening given a mainly linear mode expected, although some
   large hail may also occur early in the convective life cycle given
   the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Storms should weaken
   with eastward extent across the Upper Midwest late Sunday as they
   outrun the modest forecast instability.

   ...Southeast...
   The remnants of Delta are forecast to move northeastward across
   parts of the TN Valley on Sunday. Modestly enhanced mid-level
   south-southwesterly winds will remain across parts of the Southeast
   as a surface warm front lifts slowly northward across parts of the
   Carolinas. There appears to be enough veering/strengthening of winds
   with height to support modestly organized storms across the warm
   sector, with weak to locally moderate instability also forecast.
   Isolated strong/gusty winds appear to be the main threat, although a
   brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

   ..Gleason.. 10/09/2020

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