SPC AC 080822

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN AND OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
   possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks
   northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.

   ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward
   across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday as a cold front
   advances eastward into the Ozarks and Arklatex. Moisture advection
   will take place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints likely
   reaching the lower 60s F across a large parts of the Ozarks and mid
   Mississippi Valley. At the start of the period, thunderstorms appear
   likely to be ongoing from central Oklahoma northeastward into
   northern Missouri. The models suggest that the line will move
   east-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid to upper Mississippi
   Valley during the day. Instability is forecast to peak around
   midday, when some solutions have SBCAPE reaching the 500 to 800 J/kg
   range. This combined with strong deep-layer shear of 60 to 80 kt
   should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. The stronger
   cells embedded in the line could produce strong wind gusts. Hail
   will be possible with cells that form in areas that destabilize the
   most. Due to abundant cloud cover and relatively cool surface
   temperatures, instability is expected to remain weak, keeping any
   severe threat that develops marginal.

   ..Broyles.. 11/08/2020

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