SPC AC 120831

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA/OZARKS/ARKLATEX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across eastern Oklahoma and
   the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex regions late Saturday afternoon and night.

   ...Synopsis...
   Large-scale trough amplification is likely to occur over the
   northern/central Rockies toward the Upper Midwest and Middle/Lower
   Missouri Valley Saturday and Saturday night. Primary surface
   cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the Upper Midwest, with
   modest-caliber low-level moisture steadily advecting
   north-northeastward in advance of an eastward-moving cold front.

   ...Eastern Oklahoma/Ozarks/ArkLaTex...
   It is probable that low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints will
   develop northward into the region by late Saturday afternoon and
   Saturday night in advance of the east/southeastward-moving cold
   front. Early day convection is a point of uncertainty and potential
   limitation, particularly regarding the northward extent of modest
   later-day destabilization. As compared to the 00Z NAM/GFS, the 00Z
   ECMWF (and semi-consistent prior runs) features notably stronger
   cyclogenesis farther south across Missouri/Iowa toward the
   middle/upper Mississippi Valley, with higher moisture content and
   somewhat greater available instability (albeit modest overall)
   across this region. Regardless, it would appear that at least some
   severe-weather potential will exist across the region late Saturday
   afternoon, and more so Saturday evening. While moisture/buoyancy
   details are not clear, hodographs would support the potential for
   fast-moving semi-discrete supercells and linear segments where
   adequate destabilization does occur, with a corresponding potential
   for damaging winds along with a tornado risk. This severe potential
   currently appears most probable across eastern Oklahoma/far
   northeast Texas into Arkansas and southern Missouri.

   ..Guyer.. 11/12/2020

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