SPC AC 130826

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Although organized severe-weather potential is currently expected to
   remain minimal on Sunday, a few thunderstorms with gusty winds may
   occur over parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast States.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes Sunday
   morning is expected to quickly spread east-northeastward over
   Ontario/Quebec and the Northeast States through Sunday night. An
   associated cold front will race generally eastward over the eastern
   third of the CONUS.

   ...Upper Ohio Valley/Northeast States...
   Scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are
   likely to be ongoing Sunday morning across the Upper Ohio Valley and
   Great Lakes near/ahead of a fast-moving cold front. This convection
   will quickly transition east-northeastward across the region during
   the day. In the presence of minimal low-level moisture and limited
   buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE at most), various model forecast
   soundings suggest that buoyancy depth will tend to be too shallow
   for charge separation, although thermodynamic profiles may be
   conducive for localized/isolated lightning flashes in the presence
   of strong forcing for ascent. While organized severe thunderstorms
   are not currently expected, the potential does exist for some
   convectively enhanced wind gusts as modest diurnal heating occurs
   coincident with very strong (50+ kt) west-southwesterly winds within
   the lowest 1-2 km AGL.

   ...Coastal Texas to Southeast States/Florida...
   These areas will be located well to the south of more appreciable
   height falls/forcing for ascent, although corridors of weak
   convection may occur near the southeast-moving cold front. Forecast
   soundings for areas such as coastal Texas and the Florida
   Peninsula/nearby Southeast States generally reflect poor mid-level
   lapse rates and a persistent inversion aloft. Thus, the potential
   for thunderstorms currently appears low (less than 10 percent).

   ..Guyer.. 11/13/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z