SPC AC 180741

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0141 AM CST Fri Dec 18 2020

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central and
   eastern Gulf Coast regions on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broadly cyclonic upper flow is expected to be in place over the
   central and eastern CONUS early Sunday morning. Two shortwave
   troughs are forecast to exist within this troughing early Sunday,
   one extending from the Upper OH Valley into AL/GA and the other from
   the central Plains through southern High Plains. The lead shortwave
   is forecast to continue northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic and
   offshore while the shortwave continues southeastward through the
   Mid/Lower MS Valley and TN Valley/Southeast.

   A surface low is expected to be centered just off the southeastern
   LA coast at the beginning of the period. This low will likely then
   track gradually eastward very near the central Gulf Coast throughout
   the day before shifting northeastward over northern FL and ending
   the period just off the GA/SC coast. Given the expected path of this
   low, inland penetration of the warm sector will be minimal. A few
   lightning flashes are possible amid the weak buoyancy and modest
   ascent near the surface low and along the attendant cold front. If
   the system is more progressive, it could contribute to higher
   lightning potential across central/southern FL. However, low
   predictability limits expanding the thunder area into more of
   central/south FL with this outlook.

   ..Mosier.. 12/18/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z