SPC AC 280804

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 AM CST Mon Dec 28 2020

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
   possible late Wednesday afternoon across parts of the Texas Coastal
   Plain.

   ...Texas Coastal Plain...
   An upper-level low is forecast to move east-southeastward across
   northern Mexico on Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow remains in
   place from the southern Plains into the Arklatex. Strong low-level
   flow will be maintained across the Texas Coastal Plain resulting in
   an increase in moisture during the day. Surface dewpoints are
   forecast increase into the 60s F across much of the Texas Coastal
   Plain as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Model forecasts
   suggest that the strongest instability will develop during the late
   afternoon from near Brownsville northward to near Austin, where
   MLCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg. Thunderstorms appear likely to
   develop along the front in the afternoon due to increasing surface
   temperatures and enhanced low-level convergence. Additional
   convection could initiate to the south of the front across southern
   sections of the Texas Coastal Plain. In this area, MLCAPE of 1200
   J/kg, 0-6 km shear near 50 kt and steep lapse rates above 700 mb
   would be enough for a marginal severe threat. The threat for hail
   and strong wind gusts would be greatest from near Victoria northward
   to between Austin and College Station between 21Z/Wed and 00Z/Thu.

   ..Broyles.. 12/28/2020

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