DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2021 VALID TIME 162000Z - 171200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 32890022 33770033 34700078 35480118 36110138 36520141 36870098 37219995 37579799 37609660 37349533 35559362 34449127 34398939 33838689 32938572 32848428 32738250 32198237 31838251 31548304 31268513 31279122 30819305 30759427 30739561 29569744 29079857 29280002 30120151 30700163 32040074 32890022 0.05 34530014 35700065 36340048 36619981 36709752 36319585 35239474 34129341 33679239 33869103 33849010 33618948 33018949 32249081 32029206 31809358 31409553 31649634 32619744 33479850 34019954 34530014 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 30860177 32010097 32940050 33350048 34610104 35540160 36600189 37610161 38639952 39479729 39979491 39969361 39279284 37119313 35579048 34598889 34028713 32998434 32648258 32168265 31618345 31118486 30968766 30988887 31079137 30969297 30459536 29539714 28909848 28930021 30030174 30860177 0.15 30710159 31620096 32550000 33259991 33750023 34780076 35490115 36470144 37210087 37889984 38839782 39089623 38929494 38159444 35219470 34199337 33719195 33989081 33978959 33638921 33108929 32169087 31829326 31339598 29779763 29329871 29469993 30250129 30710159 0.30 36380047 36730010 37319873 37369766 37339713 37269688 37019666 36659670 36409683 35979764 35649845 35579910 35679980 35920042 36380047 SIGN 33980008 35500075 36340109 36940064 37759905 38099606 37719554 36799592 35739633 34299667 33699728 33619817 33980008 SIGN 31000107 31480069 31800021 31999945 32119837 31719815 30829841 30449928 30310076 30640120 31000107 && ... WIND ... 0.05 30690167 31920082 32980031 33610022 34550084 35590146 36480162 37200133 38070000 39059777 39429543 39279413 38979352 36989333 36229245 35679117 34608910 34168765 33808681 32908432 32748229 32238186 31798206 31328304 31058489 31088754 31049137 31349256 31349382 30909542 29449728 28909845 28930021 30000173 30690167 0.15 30830120 31750057 32959940 33559926 34509985 34860056 35560095 36400125 37030086 37699987 38359797 38589652 38529572 38019492 36409517 35539514 34569442 33849451 32739511 31409612 29819756 29329865 29469993 30380114 30830120 0.15 33719147 33939087 33938960 33638927 33108933 32589019 32219083 32469186 33019212 33719147 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... ENH 37269688 37019666 36659670 36409683 35979764 35649845 35579910 35679980 35920042 36380047 36730010 37319873 37369766 37339713 37269688 SLGT 38159444 35219470 34199337 33739200 33779170 33989081 33978959 33638921 33108929 32169087 31829326 31559484 31409553 31419556 31339598 30049735 29819756 29789762 29779763 29739774 29329865 29339869 29329871 29469987 29469993 29469994 30250129 30710159 31620096 32550000 33259991 33750023 34780076 35490115 36470144 37210087 37889984 38839782 39089623 38929494 38159444 MRGL 39279284 37119313 35579048 34598889 34028713 32998434 32858364 32748229 32238186 31798206 31328304 31058489 31078587 30968766 30988887 31069077 31049137 31079148 31019227 30819305 30779389 30459536 29539714 29499721 29449728 28909845 28919848 28909848 28930021 30000173 30030173 30030174 30860177 32010097 32940050 33350048 34610104 35540160 36600189 37610161 38639952 39479729 39979491 39969361 39279284 TSTM 29350172 29720194 30010192 30540198 31170183 31840131 32880072 33400070 34340118 35070168 36220644 36661004 36591166 37041289 37621352 39101328 39771276 40001150 40130938 39640736 39210651 38590547 38430471 38390434 38780231 38970037 39369930 40189649 40989405 41359268 41029204 39289076 38279059 37219016 36398907 35888718 35018503 35088230 34808015 34627800 35517632 36337506 99999999 30508080 30368179 30168252 29818324 29238382 99999999 29698735 30068808 29499014 29849329 29279511 28809568 28909623 28559923 28110092 && THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE PNC 30 NE PNC 25 ESE PNC 25 SE PNC 30 SSE END 45 NW CHK 15 NNE CSM 40 NW CSM 55 ENE BGD 55 SSE LBL 55 ESE LBL 10 W P28 25 SSW ICT 25 SE ICT 40 NNE PNC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE OJC 15 NNW RKR 25 SW HOT 15 WNW LLQ 10 NNE LLQ 35 NNE GLH 30 S UOX 45 W CBM 55 ESE GWO 45 NE HEZ 10 WNW IER 25 NNW LFK 45 N UTS 50 N UTS 50 NW UTS 25 SE AUS 30 ENE BAZ 25 E BAZ 25 E BAZ 15 E BAZ 20 SW SAT 20 SW SAT 20 SW SAT 40 W HDO 45 W HDO 45 W HDO 55 ENE 6R6 60 NE 6R6 30 WNW SJT 20 WNW ABI 60 NNW ABI 45 S CDS 35 NW CDS 20 SE BGD 15 SSE GUY 15 NNE LBL 10 NE DDC 10 WNW SLN 25 E MHK 10 WNW OJC 50 SSE OJC. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW COU 15 ESE SGF 20 SSE JBR 25 NNW TUP 40 NW BHM 40 E LGC 10 N MCN 40 N VDI 30 E VDI 35 SE VDI 40 W AYS 20 NE MAI 30 SW DHN 40 ENE MOB 40 NNE GPT 20 WSW MCB 40 S HEZ 40 SSW HEZ 25 S ESF 20 SSE POE 45 WSW POE 20 SSE UTS 50 NNW VCT 50 NNW VCT 45 NNW VCT 45 S SAT 45 S SAT 45 S SAT 55 SE DRT 30 E 6R6 30 E 6R6 30 E 6R6 60 NNE 6R6 35 ESE BGS 60 NW ABI 75 S CDS 45 WNW CDS 15 SW BGD 20 WSW GUY 45 NNE EHA 40 WSW RSL 20 ESE CNK 15 N STJ 10 N CDJ 45 NW COU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W DRT 25 SE 6R6 15 E 6R6 35 NNE 6R6 60 SSE MAF 30 SSE BGS 65 NE BGS 65 ESE LBB 35 ENE PVW 10 S AMA 30 ENE 4SL 70 SSW 4BL 25 SSW PGA 40 E SGU 25 WSW CDC 45 WSW U24 30 SSE DPG 50 NW PUC 20 SSE VEL 25 W EGE 20 E ASE 45 WSW COS 15 NW PUB 10 NE PUB 30 S ITR 40 SW HLC 30 E HLC 15 ESE BIE 25 NNW LWD 20 NW OTM 20 ESE OTM 40 NNW STL 35 SSW STL 35 W CGI 35 NE DYR 35 WSW BNA 10 E CHA 15 NNW GSP 50 NNW FLO 25 NNW ILM 45 WNW HSE 60 E ECG ...CONT... 50 NE SGJ 10 SW JAX 35 NNW GNV 15 NNW CTY 50 WSW CTY ...CONT... 55 S PNS 45 SSE MOB 30 E HUM 20 SSW LCH 20 WSW GLS 25 SSW LBX 10 N PSX COT 85 S DRT.