DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2021 VALID TIME 041630Z - 051200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 29888929 29809314 29899441 30339481 31129508 31719486 33249367 36259042 38668514 38668378 38038393 36798586 35868585 35168556 34818479 35028335 35248216 35018102 34368002 33477991 32668014 32308136 32138307 31078479 30328595 29888929 0.02 37067863 37417886 37987872 38957821 40077646 40007544 39307502 38347523 37417570 36867641 36737734 36877820 37067863 0.05 30409190 30549287 30939313 32419274 33249171 33599056 33858951 34198898 34208729 33708538 33058478 32128512 31658545 30508651 30328866 30449068 30409190 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 29009435 28979535 29299660 29739666 30429631 31409529 32209449 33149378 33709342 34359325 35139316 35769286 36079235 37378917 39478431 40858198 42327995 42617955 42857875 42797738 42607651 42187603 41447542 39667496 37297481 99999999 31848015 31048569 29918943 28499072 0.15 30239281 30219419 30199504 30349535 30699533 31299470 31889367 33389200 34009151 35189104 35829087 36349032 37088884 37618764 38058639 37988582 37638556 37268563 36508729 35768837 34688896 33828879 33108814 32008786 31188840 30689035 30459169 30239281 && ... WIND ... 0.05 28659484 29259550 29639618 30119638 30589605 31369510 33069391 34329340 35789286 35889261 37318931 39168579 41958034 42837870 42887744 42687621 41967534 40947463 37467472 99999999 31848015 30878364 29408560 0.15 30358594 29948884 29948961 29909196 29989280 30089400 30159480 30779498 31979406 34359162 34839123 35839090 36419029 37018907 37738734 38108634 38078512 37778487 36958556 36278602 35538661 34588668 34438612 34888474 34768423 34508277 34968105 34887997 34347949 32858003 32698008 32318078 32118322 31158477 30358594 0.15 37508036 38517858 39167705 39217598 38837565 37857572 37127590 36557640 36037737 35967848 35937975 36288079 36758097 37508036 0.30 30439206 30729323 31189342 31739325 32469268 33289127 33759014 33938903 33828832 33898712 33958568 33818491 32898421 32228461 30478739 30348822 30429106 30439206 0.45 31699156 32468967 33478789 33318641 32718595 31718638 31078830 31009095 31049145 31699156 SIGN 31098813 30788921 30799109 30979193 31409237 32109175 32609079 32998958 33198841 32908781 32358719 31428747 31098813 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... MDT 32908781 32358719 31428747 31348763 31228788 31078830 31009095 31049145 31699156 32468967 33198841 32908781 ENH 32898421 32228461 30478739 30348822 30429106 30439206 30729323 31189342 31739325 32469268 33289127 33759014 33938903 33828832 33898712 33958568 33818491 32898421 SLGT 38837565 37857572 37127590 36557640 36037737 35967848 35937975 36288079 36758097 37508036 38517858 39167705 39217598 38837565 SLGT 37778487 36958556 36278602 35538661 34588668 34438612 34888474 34768423 34508277 34968105 34887997 34347949 32858003 32698008 32318078 32118322 31158477 30358594 29948884 29948961 29909196 29989280 30089400 30159480 30199481 30199504 30349535 30699533 31299470 31419450 31979406 34359162 34839123 35839090 36419029 37018907 37608766 37618764 37618763 37738734 38108634 38078512 37778487 MRGL 28769496 28989520 28979535 29299660 29739666 30429631 31409529 32089461 33069391 34329340 34899319 35139316 35729288 35789286 35809280 36079235 37338928 39168579 41798071 42327995 42607955 42607955 42857875 42847853 42887744 42687621 41967534 40947463 38697468 99999999 31688071 30878364 29418559 TSTM 31188093 30538280 29898329 29558373 29228443 99999999 26487955 25627999 25568073 26198140 27388173 28508198 29498164 30328105 99999999 45517485 43137254 41436910 99999999 49880874 48050725 46960607 45270324 42400203 38870214 38290396 39080699 40300876 41300962 42711154 43191364 44491554 46761505 47471610 48561673 49571692 99999999 25969888 27829913 29499879 30619822 33319580 35149571 36679563 37729471 38649280 39139065 39548873 40148662 41628344 42548197 && THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW TCL 10 W SEM 25 W GZH 35 W GZH 45 NNE MOB 25 N MOB 30 WSW MCB 40 SSW HEZ 15 WNW HEZ 55 W MEI 30 S CBM 25 SSW TCL. THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MCN 30 SE CSG 10 W PNS 25 S MOB 55 WNW MSY 15 NNW LFT 25 S POE 15 WNW POE 10 W IER 40 W MLU 20 SW GLH 15 N GWO 30 SSW TUP 15 NNE CBM 30 NW BHM 25 E GAD 30 WNW ATL 35 WNW MCN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW DOV 15 WSW WAL 20 NE ORF 25 NNW ECG 30 ENE RWI 20 ENE RDU 15 SE GSO 50 WNW GSO 30 SSW PSK 20 S SSU 25 NE SHD 20 W BWI 30 WNW DOV 25 SSW DOV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW LEX 45 E BWG 40 ENE BNA 40 S BNA HSV 30 N GAD 30 ESE CHA 60 ESE CHA AND 20 SSW CLT 40 SW SOP 15 NE FLO CHS 15 SSW CHS 25 ENE SAV 50 SSE MCN 30 NE MAI 20 WNW PFN 35 SSE GPT 30 SSE ASD 15 NE 7R4 25 ESE LCH 10 N BPT 45 NE HOU 45 NE HOU 40 NNE HOU 30 SSE UTS 10 ESE UTS LFK 20 NE LFK 35 SSW SHV 20 NE PBF 55 E LIT 15 W JBR 25 SSE POF 15 WSW PAH 30 WSW OWB 25 WSW OWB 25 WSW OWB 10 W OWB 35 W SDF 30 W LEX 25 SW LEX. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE LBX 20 ESE LBX 15 SE LBX 35 NNE VCT 60 SSW CLL 10 SSE CLL 35 WNW LFK 20 SSE GGG 30 SSE TXK 20 WSW HOT 25 SSW RUE 10 SSW RUE 35 NNE RUE 35 SW FLP 35 SW FLP 10 SE FLP 15 ENE CGI 45 E BMG 35 SW ERI 20 NE ERI 35 NNW JHW 35 NNW JHW BUF 10 ESE BUF 20 SE ROC 20 NE ITH 35 WNW MSV 30 NW EWR 50 ENE SBY ...CONT... 40 SE SAV 15 SSE MGR 40 WSW AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E SSI 35 ESE VLD 20 NNW CTY 40 W CTY 50 SE AAF ...CONT... 35 ESE PBI 20 SE MIA 35 WSW MIA 25 E APF 30 SW AGR 40 W ORL 40 SSW SGJ 30 NE SGJ ...CONT... 40 N MSS 20 NW EEN 50 ENE ACK ...CONT... 105 NNE HVR 30 WSW GGW 40 NNW MLS 25 SSE 2WX 45 ENE AIA 25 SSE ITR 30 E PUB 10 SW ASE 40 ESE VEL 35 SW RKS 55 NE MLD 40 ESE SUN 40 SE MYL 45 WSW MSO 35 WSW 3TH 75 NNE GEG 140 NNE GEG ...CONT... 45 WSW MFE 30 NE LRD 20 W SAT 40 NW AUS 30 SW PRX 20 NNE MLC 20 ESE BVO 40 NNW JLN 35 WSW COU 30 NNW STL 20 SSE DEC 25 SE LAF 20 E TOL 45 E MTC.