DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2021 VALID TIME 171200Z - 181200Z PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... TORNADO ... 0.02 29210262 30970274 32360301 33640362 34590454 35770487 37450459 37700386 37260279 36740129 35919909 35609506 34819393 33039428 32879585 31819774 29649952 28440053 0.05 33300289 34350327 34970289 34380158 34189996 33989923 33179912 32359965 31960114 32190208 33300289 && ... HAIL ... 0.05 28159573 28679806 27759999 99999999 29000289 32420318 33580364 34600466 35590521 37310522 38750524 40250537 40970530 41200425 40920339 39970269 39350127 38659791 37999469 36889327 33259338 31039293 28689124 0.15 29230263 31140279 32250287 33710346 34670425 35470468 36860458 37460414 37960293 37870109 37179845 35999573 35199499 33519535 31669660 30919814 29379968 28430054 0.30 29660222 31940237 33250290 34210323 35200272 35590103 35389848 34719741 33269701 31819781 31169982 29120107 0.45 32180201 33490267 34300231 34100122 34200002 33949920 33189911 32349970 31960113 32180201 SIGN 29530246 30940256 33440313 34440344 35300297 35710152 35499931 35129839 34519783 33659776 32059836 29849988 28790073 && ... WIND ... 0.05 28219591 28679805 27769994 99999999 28990287 32400317 33570363 34580465 35580521 37310522 40250537 40970530 41200425 40920339 39970269 39350127 38559754 37999482 36919326 33159327 31009293 28659128 0.15 29480228 32050261 33760343 34640418 35590467 36770457 37490414 37950306 38010218 37840100 37179849 35999573 35159499 33509531 31759654 30969813 29719937 28440055 && CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1 ... CATEGORICAL ... MDT 34330227 34100123 34200005 33959923 33199912 32359967 31960115 32190203 33550268 34330227 ENH 29470222 31940237 33330293 34250325 35220275 35580102 35379847 34709742 33259700 31819782 31169981 29060114 SLGT 29240264 32300287 33660344 34660423 35470470 36850462 37500411 37950302 37840095 37209853 36039577 35159499 33469535 31689661 30919815 29379968 28420058 MRGL 28229595 28679806 27759995 99999999 28990288 31190308 32400317 33540363 34560466 35550522 37310522 40250537 40970530 41200425 40920339 39970269 39350127 38589759 37999469 36919331 33189335 30939290 28699128 TSTM 48318923 47159030 47069170 47489326 48089394 48969416 99999999 35561042 35540938 36570869 37730899 38370949 38391014 38211073 37741113 36811124 36131094 35561042 99999999 28880336 30300356 31380367 32420369 33380411 34110497 33670835 33430891 33311012 33501092 33981174 34241199 34531393 34551467 34721526 35841603 36101642 35981682 35441693 35151641 34831653 34881722 35241770 35641829 36641931 38872063 40301957 41991836 43791721 45931624 46691463 47061321 47201198 46910976 46200797 45500590 44180530 42980361 42640171 41830045 41029867 41409715 41329556 41169399 41559242 42089059 41548814 41138585 38568177 36858000 35857922 35127959 34588058 34448131 35048292 35278372 35798443 36558515 37028658 36328761 35148793 34178791 32588791 31138786 30678795 29628808 99999999 27499629 27759661 28109715 28049769 27429847 27039878 26839909 26569953 99999999 45306679 44446825 43596979 42717054 41837073 41457093 41387190 41017290 40877402 40797499 41267552 42447557 43217623 45627381 && THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW PVW 30 E PVW 20 SE CDS 40 W SPS 60 NNE ABI ABI 25 SE BGS 20 NNE MAF 50 W LBB 35 WNW PVW. THERE IS A ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 6R6 10 W MAF 50 NNE HOB 10 SSE CVS 50 E TCC 25 ESE BGD 35 WNW CHK 35 NW ADM 30 NNW DAL 35 SE SEP 45 ESE SJT 25 SSW DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW 6R6 35 SE HOB 50 S CVS 50 SW TCC 30 ESE LVS 10 NW RTN 20 NE TAD 20 WSW LAA 15 WSW GCK P28 15 SSE TUL 25 WNW RKR 15 SSE PRX 25 SSW CRS 45 WSW TPL 30 W HDO 70 SSE DRT. THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PSX 30 NW NIR 35 WNW LRD ...CONT... 85 SSW 6R6 20 NNW FST 20 S HOB 55 ENE ROW 65 ENE 4CR 10 SSW LVS 35 ESE ALS 25 SW FCL 30 WSW CYS 30 E CYS 25 WSW SNY 30 ESE AKO 25 E GLD 15 SSE SLN 50 ENE CNU 20 S SGF 30 W ELD 20 ESE POE 70 SSW HUM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE GNA 40 S GNA 15 SW BFW 20 WNW HIB 40 SW INL 45 NW INL ...CONT... 40 NNE INW 35 W GUP 30 WSW FMN 30 ENE 4BL 30 SSE CNY 30 E 4HV 15 S 4HV 25 WNW U17 15 ESE PGA 60 SSE PGA 40 NNE INW ...CONT... 105 SW 6R6 30 E MRF 40 SW INK 35 WSW HOB 25 ENE ROW 40 E 4CR 70 WNW TCS 60 NE SAD 40 NW SAD 65 E PHX 40 NNE PHX 35 SE PRC 45 ESE EED 15 S EED 35 W EED 50 WSW LAS 45 SSW DRA 55 ENE NID 40 NNW DAG 30 NE DAG 15 E DAG 25 W DAG 25 NNE EDW 35 W NID 25 ESE FAT 35 W TVL 55 WNW LOL 50 SSW REO 50 WNW BOI 35 WSW P69 30 WSW MSO 25 N 3DU 35 SW GTF 15 SW LWT 40 NE BIL 25 WNW 4BQ 15 SE GCC 25 WNW CDR 50 NW MHN 35 ESE MHN 20 WNW GRI 10 ESE OLU 15 E OMA 30 SSW DSM 30 N OTM 25 SSE DBQ 30 ENE MMO 35 WNW FWA 15 NW CRW 35 S ROA 25 W RDU 15 WSW SOP 50 SSE CLT 35 NNW CAE 35 SW AVL 40 SSE TYS 25 W TYS 40 N CSV 10 WNW BWG 25 SSW CKV 30 NNW MSL 45 SSW MSL 45 SSW TCL 40 NE MOB 20 E MOB 75 S MOB ...CONT... 75 ESE CRP 55 E CRP 30 NE CRP 20 NNW CRP 35 SW ALI 55 SE LRD 55 SSE LRD 70 S LRD ...CONT... 30 NNE EPM BHB 25 E PWM 30 SSE PSM 15 NE EWB 15 S EWB 10 ENE GON 15 SE BDR 15 NNE EWR 25 ENE ABE 10 ESE AVP 25 NE BGM 10 NW SYR 70 NE MSS.