Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 040540
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Sun Jan 03 2021
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along the
northern California and Pacific Northwest coastal areas as well as
the northern Sierra Nevada, mainly this afternoon.
A shortwave trough will move through northern California and the
Pacific Northwest region today accompanied by cold air aloft and
steepening mid-level lapse rates. Weak destabilization is expected
especially near the coastal areas where diabatic heating and moist
onshore flow will occur, resulting in MLCAPE from 200-300 J/kg.
Strong vertical shear will accompany the shortwave trough, but there
will be a tendency for winds in the near surface to 700 mb layer to
weaken as the atmosphere destabilizes near the upper trough axis.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in
this regime, especially during the afternoon, but the thermodynamic
environment is expected to remain too marginal for a severe threat.
..Dial.. 01/04/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
| 
)
