Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 050040
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Mon Jan 04 2021
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...Northern Great Basin...
Strong short-wave trough has moved inland and currently extends from
western OR into northeast CA. This feature will spread across the
Great Basin tonight which will result in a surface front surging
into eastern ID/northern UT/central NV after 06z. Deep convection,
with some lightning, has been noted ahead of this feature over
northern CA over the last few hours. However, deeper convection is
now developing downstream, east of the Sierra Nevada, in association
with large-scale forcing. It appears isolated thunderstorms may
spread farther inland than earlier anticipated, so 10 percent
thunder line will be adjusted to account for this evolution.
..Darrow.. 01/05/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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