SPC AC 251625

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1025 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

   Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKANSAS
   EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH....

   ...SUMMARY...
   A marginal severe threat is expected today from parts of the
   Arklatex east-northeastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee,
   and tonight over parts of the Deep South.

   ...TN Valley today...
   A progressive shortwave trough continues to move across the central
   Plains today, with an associated 100kt+ mid level jet extending from
   north TX into MO.  The primary surface low for this system is over
   northwest AR, with a warm front extending eastward along the KY/TN
   border.  Strong low-level wind fields are present across the warm
   sector, with sufficient CAPE to pose a marginal risk of a few
   fast-moving storms capable of gusty winds.  However, model guidance
   continues to suggest that slight veering in the low-level winds will
   weaken convergence/forcing and limit coverage of deep convection.

   ...MS/AL/TN this evening and tonight...
   After dark, a few thunderstorms are expected to form over parts of
   MS/Al and middle TN along/ahead of the advancing cold front. 
   Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear profiles in this area will
   be favorable for storm organization/rotation, and will maintain the
   marginal probabilities for isolated tornadoes or damaging wind
   gusts.  The primary forecast concern in this region will be storm
   coverage, and poor thermodynamics in the lowest 3-4 km suggest that
   updrafts may struggle to intensify.  This area will continue to be
   evaluated in later outlooks.

   ..Hart.. 01/25/2021

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