Jacksonville, FL...Gainesville, FL...Lakeside, FL...Palm Valley, FL...Jacksonville Beach, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
7,071
1,778,887
Jacksonville, FL...Gainesville, FL...Lakeside, FL...Palm Valley, FL...Jacksonville Beach, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
6,348
1,750,045
Jacksonville, FL...Gainesville, FL...Lakeside, FL...Palm Valley, FL...Jacksonville Beach, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 271932
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated strong storm may continue to pose a risk for severe wind
gusts and/or an additional tornado or two across parts of
northeastern Florida through about 4-5 PM EST.
...20Z Outlook Update...
Primary lingering severe weather potential appears in association
with the small, organized cluster of thunderstorms (with a sustained
significant embedded mesoscale vortex) currently propagating
eastward near the Interstate 10 corridor of northeastern Florida.
This probably will include a continuing risk for damaging wind
gusts, and perhaps an additional brief tornado or two, as it passes
near/west and southwest of the Jacksonville area through 21-22Z.
(For further details see SPC Mesoscale Discussion 40)
This cell may be near the southern periphery of the stronger
mid-level height falls, with warmer temperatures aloft and weaker
large-scale forcing for ascent limiting convective potential farther
to the west and south.
Otherwise, adjustments to the categorical and probabilistic lines
have been mostly to account for the progression of the synoptic and
subsynoptic features.
..Kerr.. 01/27/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021/
...FL/GA...
Morning surface analysis shows a boundary extending from the FL
panhandle east-northeastward to the GA coast. Scattered showers and
occasional thunderstorms have been occurring in vicinity of this
boundary, including a few rotating/bowing structures. Local VAD
profiles suggest that low level winds are relatively veered,
limiting the convergence along the boundary and the near-surface
vertical shear profiles. Abundant cloud cover will also likely
persist through the day, limiting substantial destabilization. CAM
solutions suggest that deep convection will track across southern
GA/northern FL through the afternoon. A severe storm or two is
possible in this corridor, with locally damaging wind gusts the main
threat. An isolated tornado is also possible, but the overall
severe threat appears to remain marginal.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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