SPC AC 300545

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
   OK/SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms may be noted from northeast Oklahoma into
   southwest Missouri, including parts of southeast Kansas and
   northwest Arkansas.

   ...OK/KS/MO/AR Region...

   Strong short-wave trough is shifting across AZ late this evening.
   This feature is forecast to progress into the southern High Plains
   by sunrise. Latest guidance suggests 115kt 500mb speed max will
   translate across southern OK around 18z with a pronounced exit
   region forecast over northeast OK/southeast KS by mid day. Intense
   12hr mid-level height falls, approaching 240m will be noted with
   this feature.

   In response, 70kt LLJ will develop ahead of the pacific
   front/surface trough which should encourage 50-53F surface dew
   points to advance across TX into the aforementioned left-exit region
   of the strong mid-level jet. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will
   spread north of I-40 into southwest MO as 500mb temperatures cool to
   near -22F ahead of the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest
   surface-based buoyancy will evolve by 17z, just northeast of the OKC
   area. At this time it appears low-topped convection may begin to
   evolve along the wind shift. Given the extreme surface-6km shear
   forecast, this activity could struggle to organize. The primary
   corridor of greatest risk will be oriented along the I44 zone from
   northeast OK into southwest MO. Expected severe coverage does not
   currently warrant a SLGT risk, though the strongest supercells could
   produce hail, wind, or perhaps a brief tornado.

   ..Darrow/Cook.. 01/30/2021

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