Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 310033
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Sat Jan 30 2021
Valid 310100Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of tonight.
...01z Update...
Strong upper trough has progressed into the Mid MS Valley early this
evening, currently extending from northwest MO-northern AR. As a
result, focused exit region of the mid-level jet has shifted into
the lower OH Valley as evident by the extensive precip shield along
the nose of the LLJ.
Upstream, the loss of diurnal heating will prove detrimental to
surface-based convection immediately ahead of the upper trough as
boundary-layer cooling cripples an otherwise weakly buoyant air
mass. Remnants of earlier severe that developed over northeast OK
has progressed into the MO Ozark Plateau where substantial weakening
has been observed. With downstream surface temperatures in the 40s
to lower 50s, there appears to be limited buoyancy for robust
updrafts. For these reasons, severe probabilities are too low to
warrant a continuation of the MRGL Risk tonight.
..Darrow.. 01/31/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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