SPC AC 130500

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1100 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong/marginally severe thunderstorms are possible today
   across northern and central Florida.

   ...Synopsis...
   Cool and stable air will cover the majority of the CONUS on
   Saturday, with high pressure centered over the northern Plains and a
   polar vortex shifting into western Ontario. The main exception will
   be over FL, where a stalled front will exist, with moisture and
   daytime heating supporting scattered thunderstorms.

   Elsewhere, afternoon/evening convection is also possible from  parts
   of the Great Basin into AZ and NM. Here, a digging upper trough with
   strong differential divergence, along with daytime heating, will
   lead to sufficient instability for isolated thunderstorms. Given
   minimal moisture, severe weather is unlikely here.

   ...Northern FL...
   A weak surface trough will extend from the central Gulf of Mexico
   across northern FL and will remain nearly stationary through the
   period. Heating is expected over much of the peninsula, with mid 60s
   F dewpoints contributing to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE after 18Z. All
   this will occur beneath modest southwest flow aloft, and with
   gradual height falls late ahead of a shortwave trough moving into
   the western Gulf of Mexico. The combination of weak lift and
   marginal lapse rates suggest mostly disorganized storm mode, but
   isolated cells may become strong to marginally severe during the
   peak heating hours given good deep-layer shear. A few strong wind
   gusts will be possible, and any tornado would likely be weak and
   brief.

   ..Jewell/Wendt.. 02/13/2021

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