SPC AC 140038

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0638 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

   Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible through
   tonight, mainly across the central and western Florida Peninsula.

   ...Florida...
   Slightly rising to neutral height tendencies aloft will persist over
   FL overnight, as the main upper wave pivots into the central Gulf of
   Mexico. The 00Z TBW sounding shows good moisture but relatively poor
   lapse rates aloft, as well as good overall deep-layer shear and weak
   winds in the lowest few km. While storms will be most numerous
   overnight offshore across the Gulf of Mexico, a moist and mostly
   uncapped air mass will remain overnight and may support a few strong
   thunderstorms. Southwest winds above the surface will persist
   overnight, and will may contribute to subtle lift/warm advection.
   Any storms that do threaten the western coast of FL may be strong or
   marginally severe, with localized damaging gusts the primary threat.
   Although not strong, shear in the 0-1 km layer around 100 m2/s2 may
   prove sufficient for a brief/weak tornado as well.

   ...Southwest...
   Loss of heating along with departing large-scale lift tonight will
   support a continued weakening trend with regards to convectively
   enhanced wind gusts across AZ. Further destabilization is unlikely
   into NM tonight, although a few lightning flashes may occur. For
   more information, see mesoscale discussion 77.

   ..Jewell.. 02/14/2021

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