Gainesville, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Deltona, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...Port Orange, FL...
MARGINAL
16,240
7,761,081
Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
10,466
2,151,130
Gainesville, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Deltona, FL...Daytona Beach, FL...Port Orange, FL...
2 %
11,291
5,704,081
Jacksonville, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...Clearwater, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 141624
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL...
...SUMMARY...
A tornado or two, locally damaging winds, and small hail will be
possible across portions of north and central Florida through about
6 PM EST.
...North and central FL...
An MCV near the FL/GA border attendant to a mid-level jetlet
expected to progress northeast along the South Atlantic coast will
likely be the northern extent of deep convection this afternoon.
With the surface front currently draped across Dixie to Flagler
counties, this initial convection should remain elevated amid a weak
mid-level lapse rate environment atop a near-surface stable layer.
Severe potential will likely be tied to convective development
occurring in a trailing fashion to the south-southwest that can
progress within the baroclinic zone this afternoon. Here, an
adequate environment for a supercell or two might support a risk for
a brief tornado and locally damaging winds. Later this afternoon
into the evening, low-level flow will become increasingly veered and
hodograph curvature will decrease as the mid-level jetlet moves
farther away from the region, curtailing severe potential with time.
Otherwise, a localized/marginal severe threat may accompany
convection that forms towards peak heating along the east coast sea
breeze as far south as the Lake Okeechobee vicinity.
..Grams/Cook.. 02/14/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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