Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 150044
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are no longer expected through Monday morning.
...Southeast...
As the lead wave continues to move northeast across the Mid
Atlantic, lift will continue to decrease over FL. The 00Z soundings
show a pronounced subsidence inversion in the midlevels. Therefore,
while still moist and unstable over the peninsula, storms should
remain concentrated over the Atlantic along the cold front.
Elsewhere, elevated thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage from southeast TX into the lower MS Valley tonight, as
large-scale lift increases ahead of a powerful upper trough. Given
the cold air already in place at the surface, severe storms are
unlikely.
..Jewell.. 02/15/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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