Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
20,845
3,513,245
Jacksonville, FL...Savannah, GA...Gainesville, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Wilmington, NC...
SPC AC 160036
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from
northern Florida into southern South Carolina, with a conditional
severe threat overnight into the coastal Carolinas.
...Florida into the eastern Carolinas...
Lift with an ejecting midlevel jet max will quickly shift northeast
this evening across the lower Great Lakes, with gradual heights
continuing across the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front
will continue to push east across southeast GA and northern FL this
evening, and into eastern NC later tonight.
Ahead of the cold front and existing line of thunderstorms, a warm
front was situated over southeast GA around 01Z. This boundary will
lift north overnight, with gradually veering surface winds over the
eastern Carolinas.
The most likely area for severe storms, including damaging gusts or
a tornado, continues to be along and south of the warm front from
southeast GA into northern FL. Here, MLCAPE exceeds 1000 J/kg as of
early evening. The threat will end in this area with the passage of
the squall line.
Farther north and overnight, destabilization is more uncertain. The
most likely area for surface-based effective parcels will be over
the coastal counties of SC and NC, as cool and stable air currently
resides inland north of the warm front. Conditionally, shear
profiles will become quite favorable for supercells and a tornado
threat. However, if the cooler boundary layer prevails, then the
severe risk will be greatly mitigated.
For more information for parts of FL, see mesoscale discussions 96
and 97.
..Jewell.. 02/16/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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