Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Lexington-Fayette, KY...Birmingham, AL...Little Rock, AR...Knoxville, TN...Chattanooga, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
144,775
10,981,251
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Waco, TX...
SPC AC 010055
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
TEXAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible
through tonight from northeast Texas into the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley. A few strong storms, with some marginal severe
hail threat, are possible later tonight across southwest into
south-central Texas.
...01z Update...
An elongated corridor of deep convection has matured and currently
extends from northeast TX-eastern AR-western TN-southern KY. This
activity has developed ahead of a notable cold front that should
continue to advance southeast through the end of the period. While
the primary storm mode is multi-faceted with a considerable amount
of linear and convective structures, a few supercells are noted
within the larger complex. 00z sounding from SHV exhibited a profile
that is supportive of supercells with SBCAPE on the order of 1900
J/kg with 240 sfc-3km SRH. It appears the greatest severe threat
will continue along a corridor from northeast TX into middle TN.
Damaging winds are the main threat, but a few tornadoes are also
possible.
Farther southwest, strong upper low is digging southeast across
AZ/NM. This feature should encourage elevated convection across
portions of southwest TX around 06z, +/- a few hours. This activity
should spread east ahead of large-scale forcing, along the cool side
of the southward-surging cold front. Hail is the primary risk with
this activity.
..Darrow.. 03/01/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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