Enid, OK...Ponca City, OK...Winfield, KS...Woodward, OK...Arkansas City, KS...
SLIGHT
246,694
21,076,413
San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
MARGINAL
191,210
13,228,714
Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
142,807
13,691,578
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
2 %
210,404
13,969,418
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
186,726
17,039,277
San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
5 %
245,646
17,007,084
Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Shreveport, LA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
82,457
3,340,509
Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...
30 %
18,666
263,576
Enid, OK...Ponca City, OK...Winfield, KS...Woodward, OK...Arkansas City, KS...
15 %
246,365
20,918,553
San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...
5 %
185,033
13,079,979
Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...
SPC AC 170030
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with large hail (some significant), damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are expected tonight across the southern
Great Plains to the Ark-La-Miss.
...01z Update...
No significant changes have been made to the 20z outlook other than
to increase severe probabilities a bit across portions of central AR
for late tonight.
Leading edge of intense mid-level forcing is now spreading across NM
into the TX Panhandle, per expanding mid-level cloud shield.
Extensive dust, kicked up by 50kt+ surface winds across eastern NM,
is now spreading northeast which supports this dynamic, progressive
system. Boundary-layer moisture is advancing quickly northwest
across north TX/southern OK and adequate buoyancy is now in place
for thunderstorm initiation near CDS. As moisture surges northwest
overnight, robust/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead
of the surface low, in line with earlier thinking.
One minor change to the earlier outlook is to expand severe
probabilities a bit downstream into portions of central AR. There is
some concern that LLJ may strengthen across the Arklatex by sunrise.
If so, a risk of tornadic supercells may begin by the end of the
day1 period. This threat warrants a nudge up in severe
probabilities.
..Darrow.. 03/17/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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