SPC AC 241618

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

   Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
   isolated tornadoes will be possible over parts of the southern
   Plains into the Arklatex, mainly this evening into tonight.

   ...North-Central TX this afternoon...
   Latest visible satellite loop shows relatively clear skies across
   much of north-central and northeast TX, with temperatures warming
   through the 60s.  Meanwhile, a surface warm front is lifting
   northward into this area, with 50s dewpoints now as far north as
   ACT.  This destabilizing process will continue through the
   afternoon, yielding MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg.  Forecast
   soundings show little cap, and CAM guidance indicates the likely
   development of scattered thunderstorms across the warm sector and in
   vicinity of the warm front.  Supercell structures are expected with
   large hail being the main threat.  As the low-level moisture
   continues to improve through the evening, isolated tornadoes will
   also be possible as activity spreads into northeast TX.

   ...Central TX tonight...
   Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over northern Mexico
   rounding the base of the larger-scale trough.  This feature will
   emerge into southwest TX after dark, leading to the development of
   scattered thunderstorms.  Similar to farther north, supercells
   capable of large hail and a tornado or two appears to be the main
   threat, although the potential for damaging winds could also
   increase with time.  This cluster of storms is expected to track
   east-northeastward through the pre-dawn hours into east TX, with a
   continued severe risk.

   ...Southern AR/northwest MS...
   A surface warm front is forecast to become better defined by evening
   over central MS/LA and lift northward overnight.  Thunderstorms are
   expected to develop along and north of this boundary after midnight.
   Meanwhile, model guidance is consistent in a strengthening low-level
   jet late tonight across this region - yielding enlarged hodographs
   and considerable low-level shear.  It is unclear if the convection
   along the immediate warm front will be surface-based.  However, if
   these storms can be rooted in the boundary-layer, the potential
   exists for supercells and bowing structures capable of damaging
   winds or an isolated tornado.

   ..Hart/Moore.. 03/24/2021

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